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| Thai
soldiers are seen during a visit by Thai Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva, following armed clashes on a disputed border area between
Cambodia and Thailand, at a makeshift camp in Surin province, 30 km (19
miles) from the Thai-Cambodia border, April 27, 2011. (Sukree
Sukplang/Courtesy Reuters) |
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| Border clash with Thailand: a welcome distraction for the CPP from other pressing problems, such as the pending eviction of thousands of poor Cambodians from central Phnom Penh to make way for a development given to a close associate of the prime minister |
by Joshua Kurlantzick
Council on Foreign Relations
As
the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over the Preah Vihear
temple spirals out of control, with fighting now spreading to new
locations, outside observers have desperately been trying to cool
tempers. Not only Indonesia but also other
ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, have been putting pressure on the
two sides to back off from the brink. China apparently has applied
pressure as well. ASEAN as an organization fears that the
continuing dispute will only make it look more feckless than it is
often perceived to be – and so Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva
apparently will discuss the conflict with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun
Sen on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in May in Jakarta.
Do not expect any miracles.
Key constituencies in both nations are benefiting too much from the
border dispute to allow it to die out completely now. As I mentioned
yesterday, the Thai army clearly sees the
dispute as a way to rally nationalist sentiment and also, most
importantly, to entrench the armed forces at the center of national
security and political life. In the run-up to what is expected
to be a hotly contested national election, keeping in the center of
politics will be crucial for the military, and so they are unlikely to
abandon the dispute.
Cambodia’s key constituencies have just as much reason to prolong the dispute, even though citizens may suffer. (But then, having citizens suffer has never been a major problem for policymakers in Cambodia.) The dispute allows
Hun Sen’s oldest son, Hun Manet, to play a larger role in military
policymaking, potentially positioning him one day to take over running
the country from his father. And the dispute, by fanning nationalist flames in Cambodia as well, distracts
from other pressing problems, such as the pending eviction of
thousands of poor Cambodians from central Phnom Penh to make way for a
development given to a close associate of the prime minister. With Cambodia’s domestic troubles unlikely to disappear, the Preah Vihear dispute probably will not either
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